European natural gas prices on the TTF benchmark entered 2026 with a cautious tone, as end-of-winter storage levels came in below seasonal averages and competition for LNG cargoes between European and Asian buyers intensified.

Where Storage Stands

European underground gas storage facilities ended the 2025 withdrawal season below the five-year average. A prolonged cold spell across central and eastern Europe in late November and December drew heavily on reserves. Entering Q1 2026 with below-average storage means the European gas market is more sensitive to weather and supply disruptions than it has been in recent mild winters.

LNG: The Critical Swing Supplier

Europe’s increased reliance on LNG imports since the reduction of Russian pipeline flows means global LNG dynamics are now central to European gas price formation. Competition from Asian buyers determines how much LNG finds its way to European terminals. Asian LNG spot price premium have been trading near parity with European TTF, reflecting tight global supply. New export capacity from the US and Qatar is expected through 2026, but timing mismatches mean near-term supply remains tight.

Q1 2026 Price Forecast

The consensus among analysts points to TTF trading in the €30–€50 per MWh range through Q1 2026, with significant volatility around weather events. For businesses with significant gas exposure, this is a period where hedging strategies deserve careful attention.